Ahead of Week 18, I tweeted about a few players to Go Long on. The purpose of this article is to see where we stand now after the games have been played.
What does our Mojo portfolio look like? Have we made or lost money? Should we sell, hold or short? Let’s dive in and take a look!
Here’s why I was in on Metcalf heading into a must-win Week 18 game against the Los Angeles Rams:
The targets were there, as Metcalf saw eight of them for a 28.6% share. However, that netted him just three receptions and 40 yards in a low-scoring affair. For all intents and purposes, that’s a bad game for Metcalf given the incredible opportunity against a beatable Rams secondary.
If you went Long on Metcalf with his 5x Multiplier, you’re now down 6.5% (1.3% x 5). Of course, you’re not “technically” down if you don’t sell at a loss. So in this instance, because I’m bullish on Metcalf’s future, I’d recommend holding strong.
His share price was at an all-time high on October 24, 2021 ($18.85) after a strong start to that season. Metcalf is still just 25 years old and has the makings to have a very fruitful NFL career. Hold strong and watch his share price rise in 2023 and beyond.
Here’s why I was in on Jones ahead of the Jaguars’ Week 18 divisional showdown against the Titans:
Much like Metcalf, Jones had a rough outing in Week 18. He caught just four of six targets for 21 yards. He’s had fewer than 25 yards in four of his last six games. As a result, his stock price is down 6.9% in the last month.
However, we have hope with the Jaguars sneaking into the playoffs. They’ll face the Chargers in Round One. Back in Week 3, Jones went off for 10 catches, 85 yards, and a score against them.
If you took my advice and used the 3x Multiplier, you’d be down 8.7%. With Calvin Ridley joining the Jags in 2023 to team up with Christian Kirk, Jones’ outlook becomes murky at best. Still, he still has a chance to put up a big game this week against the Chargers, so you’re better off holding and seeing if that stock can shoot up with a big playoff performance, and we know he’s capable of big performances.
Since the Jags’ bye Week, Jones has had games of 14, 12, and eight targets. He’s also gone over 100 yards twice and has scored four touchdowns in total. If he can somehow get back to around $7.96, it might make sense to sell with more elite target competition in 2023 just around the corner. But for now, hold on through the playoffs.
Here’s why I was in on the Saints’ rookie wideout in Week 18:
His stock isn’t down all that much, just under a 1% drop, after a slow Week 18. With a $500 bet, you’d currently be sitting at a $12.55 loss if you had used his 3x Multiplier (0.9% x 3 = 2.70%) and cashed out today. But here’s why you shouldn’t do that.
The chances were there for Shaheed against the Panthers. After playing on 68% of the snaps the previous week, he saw a season-high 83% in Week 18. However, that resulted in just three catches for 34 yards on four targets and seven yards on one carry.
Despite that, his underlying peripherals on the season looked really good. The undrafted rookie averaged 18.2 yards per reception, third highest in the NFL with a minimum of 20 receptions.
Here’s why I thought Dortch could have a big game in Week 18 against the San Francisco 49ers:
Four catches for 30 yards on four targets isn’t what I was expecting from Dortch in Week 18. He’s averaged right around 10 targets per game in other games he’d started in the slot; this outcome was a disappointment.
So what now? Well, because his Multiplier is only 2x, we’re not down all that much. Yes, it’s still 3.8% (1.9% x 2), but it could have been much worse.
Additionally, Dortch has bounced around the NFL for four years prior to putting up any kind of substantial production. It’s very possible he fizzles out from here and never lives up to his current Future Value of $1.28.
If you look below, that’s only $0.18 less Future Value than Shaheed, who I expect to have a much more productive NFL career from this point forward. Take the small loss by selling your Dortch stock now and move on.