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Three Underperformers to Bet On
Three Underperformers to Bet On

Matt Durisko/Associated Press

February 3, 2023

It’s time to reflect on the 2022 NFL season. Some guys overperformed, some performed like we expected them to, and others drastically underperformed. 

In this article, we’ll look at three players that underperformed relative to Mojo’s market expectations. These three players are undervalued now after their 2022 seasons, which makes it a perfect time to bet on their futures. 

Going Long on these guys means you’re expecting their stock price to increase. That’s exactly what I’ll be doing, and that’s exactly what I’ll be recommending you do as well. After reading the article, let me know if you agree. You can hit me up anytime on Twitter @AdamKoffler to talk about it. 

And as always, don’t forget to use those Multipliers to supercharge your bets in order to potentially increase your earnings. Let’s go!

Diontae Johnson, $11.43 (5x Multiplier)

Johnson has now played four seasons in the NFL. He didn’t come on until very late during his rookie season, which is typical for a lot of rookie wide receivers. He broke out in 2020 and averaged nearly 17 PPR fantasy points per game on his way to a WR11 finish. In Mojo terms, Johnson banked $1.77 during that sophomore season. That came after banking just $1.13 as a rookie. 

In 2021, Johnson entered the top-10 conversation, finishing the season as WR7 in PPR fantasy leagues and set career-highs with 1,161 yards and eight touchdowns. He averaged 10.6 targets per game on an elite 28.5% target share and 28.5% target rate. Per PlayerProfiler, he had a career-high 98.2% route participation in 2021 as well. All in all, that huge season earned him $2.08 in Mojo Value.

Then, 2022 happened. We all know Johnson was allergic to the endzone this past season with no scores on 147 targets. That’s actually impressive given his route participation was 98.1% and his target share (27%) and target rate (26.3%) didn’t dip all that much from 2021. 

In fact, his red zone target share was higher in 2022 than it was in 2021 (31% vs. 26.1%). As a result, Johnson banked just $1.37 during the 2022 season despite the fact that he ranked as the 5th-best WR in the NFL according to advanced analytics:

At just 26 years old, there’s still room for Johnson to grow into one of the league’s elite wide receivers, and he showed he could be that early on in his career. There’s absolutely no reason to believe he won’t get back on track in the touchdown column next season and likely regress positively across the board. By all measures, Johnson is a top-tier wide receiver in this league, but the Mojo market hasn’t caught on yet. 

He has a current share price of just $11.42, which includes a Future Value of just $5.08. That’s less Future Value than Gabe Davis ($5.13), who has yet to eclipse even a 19% target share in the NFL.

With his stock price down 19.5% in the last year, right now is the best time to bet on Diontae Johnson’s future. Go Long, and increase your ROI by using his 5x Multiplier.

Mike Gesicki, $5.44 (5x Multiplier)

Gesicki represents quite a curious case. After three straight seasons being utilized much like a receiver, Mike McDaniel tried to turn Gesicki into an in-line TE. That is not a role he’s fit for and his production dropped dramatically as a result. Gesicki banked just $0.71 this past season after banking an average of $1.22 the previous two seasons. 

His route participation went from 78.9% in 2021 to 56.3% in 2022. His targets per game dropped from 6.5 to 3.1 and his target share dropped from 18.6% to 9.7%. Luckily for both you (the potential buyer of his stock) Gesicki himself, he’s now a free agent and is expected to leave Miami according to Daniel Oyefusi of the Miami Herald. He should be a valuable asset on the open market at just 27 years old with elite workout metrics.

Gesicki will likely find himself on a team willing to utilize his talents appropriately if they’re open to buying his talents on the open market. 

Let’s call it what it is: he’s a wide receiver, not a tight end. A team that can deploy him as such will optimize his production, much like the Dolphins were able to do between 2019 and 2021. And when said team gets the most out of Gesicki, he’ll likely go back to banking something similar to $1.22 per season. 

Currently, the market believes he’ll earn just $1.18 more before he retires. That’s less than the market expects Logan Thomas to earn for the rest of his career. Thomas is nearly five years older than Gesicki, coming off his seventh NFL season, and has never produced near Gesicki’s heights. 

Remember, he’s just 27 years old and one year removed from banking $1.23 across a full season. That is in the 75th percentile historically for TEs on Mojo.

He’s extremely undervalued by the market after a horrid 2022 season. His value is sure to rise when he signs with a different team this offseason. Go Long right now before he signs because his rise will likely start the moment a deal is signed and use his 5x Multiplier to supercharge your bet. 

Jakobi Meyers, $7.60 (3x Multiplier)

Much like Johnson this season, Meyers was allergic to the endzone in 2020 and 2021, scoring just twice on 207 targets. However, he scored six times this past season on 96 targets. He also saw increases in yards per target (8.4 vs. 6.9) and yards per catch (12.0 vs. 10.4) from a season ago. 

If you remove the games where he was limited due to injury (50% snap share or less), Meyers finished the season as the WR19 in fantasy football (PPR). That begs the question, why is Meyers’ stock price down 27.5% over the last year? 

At just 26 years old after finishing just his fourth season, Meyers has a Future Value less than that of Tyler Boyd ($3.23 vs. $3.35). Boyd is 28 years old, will be heading into his eighth NFL season, and is coming off a year where he had just a 13.9% target share. In comparison, Meyers had a 22% target share. 

According to Mojo, the average NFL starting wide receiver has a stock price around $13.30. Meyers’ stock price sits at just $7.60 despite finishing the 2022 season as the WR19 per-game in 11 fully healthy games. With Meyers banking an average of $1.28 each of the last three seasons, the market expects only another 2.5 productive seasons out of him. 

That feels very low for one of the hottest wide receiver free agents on the market and a guy that ranked seventh in the NFL in man coverage separation during the 2022 season. 

If you believe in the talent, like I do, now is the perfect time to bet on Jakobi Meyers. Go Long, use his 3x Multiplier, and reap the rewards throughout the rest of his fruitful career that is sure to last more than 2.5 more seasons. 

Prices are current as of 2/3/2023 at 3:00 PM
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