Rick Bowmer/Associated Press
Last article, we discussed three undervalued players to Go Long on. In this article, we’ll do the exact opposite. We’ll talk about three overvalued players to Go Short on right now.
For those that are new to Mojo, it’s the Sports Stock Market that lets you bet on your favorite athletes. It started with the NFL, and as of a few weeks ago, NBA has been added to the platform.
With over 120 of your favorite NBA stars to bet on, make sure to get in on the action today. As always, make sure to use those unique Multipliers to supercharge your bets and increase your potential return.
As a reminder, like in the NFL, players accrue earnings based on real-life performance. Here’s the Mojo value formula for NBA career stocks:
Now that you know how players accrue value, let’s dive right in to see who is overvalued by the market. Here are three players you should be Going Short on right now.
After reading the article, let me know if you agree. You can hit me up anytime on Twitter @AdamKoffler to talk about it.
Harris has turned into a glorified role player this season. He’s averaging just 15.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists on a 19.1% usage rate (per FantasyLabs’ On/Off Court tool). Last season, he averaged 17.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on a 22.2% usage rate. Some of this can be chalked up to James Harden’s arrival in the middle of last season, but it’s more than likely also a sign of things to come for Harris.
He’s currently 30 years old and playing in his 12th NBA season. With a Future Value of $51.36, the market expects Harris to play at his career per-season level for nearly another five years. However, he’s essentially turned into Harrison Barnes, he’s just a year older and has spent a year more in the NBA. For comparison purposes, Barnes has a Future Value of just $42.73. And if Harris declines further, which he likely will, he’ll have to play even more than five seasons to hit his current Future Value.
Another guy to look at and compare to Harris is Kyle Kuzma. Kuzma is in just his sixth NBA season and is three years younger than Harris. However, his Future Value sits at just $58.32 (just $6.96 more than Harris). The difference here is that Kuzma is having a career year and entering his prime (averaging a career-high 21.3 points and 3.8 assists in 35.1 minutes per game).
Did we also just uncover a Long position to take as well with Kuzma? I think we may have done just that! But, for the purposes of this article, I think it’s time to Go Short on Tobias Harris’ stock as he appears to be overvalued compared to some of his younger peers. Make sure to use that 5x Multiplier to increase your return.
Do you trust Zion? I certainly don’t. He’s played just 114 games through the first three years of his career. He’s dealt with numerous injuries and there are real question marks surrounding his ability to play at an elite level while also remaining healthy given his stature.
He’s still just 22 years old, but at 6’6” 284 lbs, longevity in the NBA may not be in the cards. Not to mention his game isn’t all that “Mojo-friendly.” He doesn’t rack up a ton of defensive stats (just 1.5 steals + blocks per game in his career) and he doesn’t shoot threes.
Williamson has earned $26.62 so far in his three-year career. He has a Future Value of $154.39. He’s played 114 games to-date, meaning the market expects him to play another 661 games at his current level of production. That’s eight full seasons of 82 games. I don’t believe his play style will allow for that.
The best comparison for Zion is Blake Griffin, who also came into the league as a high-flying, yet undersized power forward. He lasted just seven years doing that. However, he developed a three-point shot which has elongated his career. Zion will need to do that if he’s going to extend his career beyond the age of 30.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is just a year older than Zion, yet has a Future Value of $129.16. With blocks and steals both accruing at a rate of $1.25 per 100 each, Jackson Jr. has a ton of upside that others on Mojo don’t. He’s still only playing sub-28 minutes per game, yet he’s averaging 4.4 steals + blocks per contest. Much like how we uncovered Kuzma’s growth potential while talking about a Short position on Tobias Harris, I believe we’ve done the same here with Jackson Jr.
Go Long on Jackson Jr. given his ability on the defensive end and Go Short on Zion Williamson with the premise that his play-style isn’t conducive to a long NBA career.
Being a Maryland alumni, I have a soft spot in my heart for other Terrapins. Huerter is a fellow Terp, but that doesn’t mean I can’t suggest Going Short on his stock.
His share price is $10 more than Keldon Johnson ($109.17) and their Future Values are separated by a mere $0.67. Johnson leads his team in usage (28.1%) and points per game (21.8), while Huerter has a usage of 19.8% and is fourth on his team in points per game (14.7). Huerter is also a year older and has been in the league one more season than Johnson.
This isn’t to say Huerter can’t have a long career, he can. But he’ll need to have a very long career in order to achieve his current stock price of $119.84. The market expects him to play another 10.4 NBA seasons at his current per-season value. That’s a lot. Especially for a guy that could easily become a sixth or seventh-man on a deep team.
The market expects Huerter to earn more value than Michael Porter Jr. ($117.47), Devin Vassell ($116.75), Kyle Kuzma ($112.71), Keldon Johnson ($109.17), and Jabari Smith Jr. ($101.12). I don’t see it. Unless Huerter can remain a starter and the third or fourth scoring option on a team into his 30s, he likely won’t hit this mark.
The time to Go Short on Huerter’s stock is now before he becomes more of a depth piece on a championship team in the future. Don’t forget to use his 3x Multiplier to increase your return.