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Senior Bowl QB Breakdown
Senior Bowl QB Breakdown

Associated Press

February 1, 2023

The Reese’s Senior Bowl practices have just kicked off and this a great event to get a closer look at some of the very best seniors entering the NFL Draft. 

The Senior Bowl has had a future first-round quarterback participate in every event since 2018, including first overall selection Baker Mayfield and top 10 picks Josh Allen and Daniel Jones. Even if not first round picks, most Senior Bowl QBs go on to be drafted and spend many years in the NFL. 

With Will Levis declining an invite this year, it seems unlikely that streak will continue but just the fact that a Senior Bowl invite projects a substantive NFL career makes this a great place to mine for value on Mojo. 

Remember, a player’s Share Price reflects statistical expectations in their NFL career. For NCAA prospects, college stats only matter if they affect how the market views their NFL potential. That all starts with their expected draft position. 

Make sure you tack on their 2x Multiplier if you want an opportunity for higher returns!

The 2023 quarterback roster looks like this:

Hendon Hooker, Tennessee, $15.33

By far the most expensive on this list, Hooker was enjoying a Heisman-level season before tearing his ACL. 

He won’t actually participate in any of the on-field activites, but will be present for measurements and interviews. 

Sadly, I think his share value is pretty capped at this point. Hooker played college ball for six years and given his age, injury, likely draft position, and ceiling I don’t see it likely he carves out a meaningful role in the NFL. Be on the lookout for Draft Night when Hooker goes off the board and you’ll be able to Go Short!

Jaren Hall, BYU, $5.34

A recent viral clip of Hall throwing a ball “70 yards” in shorts shows that he has a huge arm. I’m trying to remember another toolsy BYU QB with a big arm, but the name is alluding me.

While most NFL QBs can launch it far, a true 70 yard throw is still impressive. He’ll have to do more than that to be taken on at least Day Two come April, though. 

Like Hooker, Hall just completed his sixth year in college and took advantage of his extra year of COVID eligibility. This year did help him improve his draft stock after playing sparsely before 2021, but his share price didn’t move much.

As with most of the QBs from here on he will provide value to you should he find his way into a starting gig at any point next year. He’s toolsy enough to be back-up right away, which is good. However, I wouldn’t be too excited about betting on Hall right now.

Max Duggan, TCU, $5.19 

The baby of this group, Duggan is the only true senior without any victory laps at TCU. He is also arguably the most successful too, taking TCU to the championship game in a Cinderella season in 2022. 

Duggan has a shot at being a reasonable backup with fun upside given his grit and dual threat ability. However, his overall decision making abilities could limit how high he can fly at the next level. Yet, his four years of experience under center puts him in a unique spot mentally, very similar to Brock Purdy.

He will endear himself to coaches and teammates and likely play in the NFL for a while, offering interesting starts from time to time. I would not be shocked if Duggan was a Day Two pick, putting him in line to be a backup right away. There is Gardner Minshew ($14.63) cult-hero upside here.

Clayton Tune, Houston, $3.37 

Over the final two years of his Houston tenure, Tune threw for over 7500 yards and 70 touchdowns with 20 interceptions. He was one of the most productive quarterbacks in the nation during that span. He can also chip in some on the ground, showing off his wheels with over 500 yards rushing in 2022. 

Given that Air Raid concepts are creeping into the NFL, Tune may be suited as a decent backup if he lands on the right offense and probably has the chops to keep an offense afloat for a short period of time, similar to Bailey Zappe and Mike White this season. 

I think his NFL viability is limited, but he may bounce around and pick up some stats here and there. 

Jake Haener, Fresno St., $3.23 

Haener had quite an eventful career at Fresno St. Beginning at Washington in the Pac12, he transferred to Fresno prior to his second season. He torched the Mountain West to the tune of 4000 yards and 33 touchdowns under Kalen DeBoer in 2021.  

DeBoer then went to Washington and Haener briefly entered the transfer portal before returning to Fresno for his sixth season last year. He was excellent before having his season end prematurely with an injury.

I think arm strength will be a limitation for Haener, but I see him as capable enough to stick around the NFL for a long time and perhaps even find himself as a bridge starter for a year or two. I would be comfortable buying stock at this price and expect legitimate growth over the next calendar year. 

Malik Cunningham, Louisville, $3.18  

The Lamar Jackson comparisons are easy to make because of the helmet, but Cunningham is not the raw athlete nor advanced passer Jackson was or is. He is a fine dual-threat quarterback, though. 

It was rumored he was not on the original invite list for Mobile, but was a second option after some other players declined. Another sixth year guy, Cunningham probably does not have real NFL potential, as his passing ability is just not quite there. 

I imagine he will be a Day Three pick to a team with a run-heavy quarterback like Philadelphia or Baltimore. Still, we’ve seen players in similar roles like Trace McSorely and Tyler Huntley have massive short term growth just from being available on NFL rosters.

Tyson Bagent, Shepherd, n/a

Bagent (rhymes with “agent”), is a fifth year starter for Division II Shepherd University. His stats reflect only four full seasons, as he only attempted 19 passes in the COVID-impacted 2020 season.

He's the most seasoned at the event with 2040 attempts over 4 full seasons – nearly 80% more than the next closest, Duggan. Bagent turned that into over 17,000 career passing yards and a plethora of 400 yard games. He was also responsible for 171 touchdowns in his career. 

These truly mind bending numbers make him an exciting evaluation at the Senior Bowl. He is not currently listed on Mojo, but will be closer to the combine. So, keep an eye out for news and notes out of Mobile. He could be one to watch once you can bet on him!

Prices are current as of 2/1/2023 at 5:00 PM
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