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Mojo Team Roundtable Week 3: Buys/Sells
We’ve already seen it now with Drake London and Garrett Wilson looking like rookie year breakouts.
According to some important usage metrics, Burks looks next up.
Here’s an excerpt from “My Million Dollar Portfolio” where I made the case for Burks as a great asset to invest in on Mojo:
History has shown us that wide receivers who produce early on in their college career, declare early for the draft, and are first round picks tend to have success at a much higher rate in the NFL.
The fact that Treylon Burks has alpha size and was also clocked in at over 21 MPH in game in college. Treylon Burks is the only WR over 220 lbs drafted in the 1st to hit a top speed of 21 MPH since Julio Jones. That's an 11 year span.
Burks has seen a target on 36.7% of his routes run so far this year, the highest among all rookies. Only Drake London and Garrett Wilson have higher than 25% target per route run this season amongst rookies.
Burks also has a 3.40 yards per route run, clearly the best amongst rookies. A 2.0 yards per route run is considered elite, so Burks is off the charts right now.
He ran a route on 77% of the passing plays Ryan Tannehill was in last week.
Burks was my number one ranked rookie heading into the year and he’s currently priced over $2.50 cheaper than Drake London and Garrett Wilson.
I put together a thread this offseason looking at the careers of top 10 drafted quarterbacks who don’t get extended.
The median of starts after their rookie contracts ended in the NFL was 11 starts.
Jones still has $21.11 future Mojo Value for his career and looks like his chances at finding starting reps after this season are diminishing.
The Giants currently are operating David Sills and Richie James as two of their top three wideouts right now. The new regime inherited Jones as their quarterback, and it’s likely they hand-choose someone over the next year or two.
It may not be this week, it may not be next week, but Walker is coming. He made his debut last week a bit ahead of schedule after a preseason hernia and saw encouraging usage.
Walker was on the field for 12 snaps (24%), had four carries, ran five routes, was targeted three times, and secured two receptions. Two of those four carries came in the red zone and he spelled Travis Homer on third downs rather than Rachaad Penny. He is trending towards a legitimate role.
While CEH has produced (7.7 Y/C, 2 TD) so far this season, Jerrick McKinnon has been on the field for more snaps. The Chiefs favor McKinnon on passing downs and he found his way onto the field more often in the red zone during Week 2. Edwards-Helaire’s future value is sure to come down with declining usage.
Tua has steadily improved by QB Rating and ANY/A each year he’s been in the league. Even if you doubt the talent, his weapons will help elevate his play and price floor. He has proven there aren’t 32 better QBs than him. He doesn’t need to be great; a steady career akin to Kirk Cousins ($64.11) or Derek Carr ($74.65) would still be a great outcome for investors.
Trubisky’s future value ($10.76) is a little more than two full seasons of starting QB play from him. While I don’t doubt he can be a backup in the future, I would not count on more than 15 starts the rest of his career. He’s 30-22 as a starter in his career, but his passing efficiency is the worst it’s ever been despite above average weapons in Pittsburgh.
Tua is very underpriced on Mojo currently. Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle have unlocked Tua’s full potential as a QB. We saw an explosive 6 TD performance against Baltimore on Sunday, and he’s still $15 cheaper than Mac Jones.
Two QBs who have bright futures, but Tua’s ceiling is much higher with his elite weapons. I think Tua is a real Darkhorse for MVP this season, and a playoff appearance could dramatically increase his share price. I’m going Long on Tua.
I’m a big fan of Thielen’s talent. However, the usage in this new Vikings offense concerns me.
He still has well over $4 of future value on Mojo, and his 14% target share this season doesn’t bode well.
The Justin Jefferson lights may just be too bright for Thielen. Hopefully, his usage will increase, but even in a game where Jefferson was blanketed against the Eagles on Monday Night, Thielen still had a relatively quiet game.
