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Broncos vs Colts Recap
Broncos vs Colts Recap

October 7, 2022

This game was horrendous, but there was actually some important takeaways we can gather from the game.

The Good

Alec Pierce showed us that he might be good at football. This was his third game over 60 receiving yards in only his fourth career game. 

Here’s a list of all other WRs drafted after the first round since 2000 to do that:

  • DK Metcalf
  • Stefon Diggs
  • Anquan Boldin
  • DeSean Jackson
  • Greg Jennings
  • Deion Branch
  • Terry McLaurin

His profile reminds me a lot of Chase Claypool coming out. Claypool became super efficient early on in his rookie season and looked prime for superstardom. Pierce is also similar in the sense he was a rather unproductive college player who didn’t declare early. They were both freak athletes showing that they had upside if they could figure out the wide receiver position. 

Pierce’s share price is $7.73 while Claypool’s is $10.37. There’s clearly growth here for Pierce and I would recommend going long on him right now at his current price. 

The Bad

Russell Wilson looked terrible again. Over the last month Russell Wilson’s share price is down 9.43%! 

Based on Wilson’s career trajectory of $6.99 Mojo Value accumulated per season, he likely just needs to finish his 2024 season at his current career pace to pay off his current share price of $89.88.

There’s tons of panic regarding Russell Wilson, but this is actually somewhat normal for a top quarterback changing teams mid-career. 

Adam Harstad mentioned how both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning had a rough start on their new teams. 

Upon doing more research, I found that Carson Palmer had the same issue with the Cardinals. 

In Palmer’s first seven games with the Cardinals he had eight touchdowns and 13 interceptions while having a 4.95 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A).

The next 46 games Palmer had 88 touchdown passes against only 37 interceptions with a 7.9 AY/A. 

We have 10 years of data showing us that Russell Wilson is an elite quarterback in the league. We should lean into what those 158 starts told us about him rather than the five starts we have seen in a brand new environment. 

I’m buying the fact that Russell Wilson is going to bounce back at some point this season. The way the contract is structured is that he is essentially tied to the Broncos until the end of the 2025 season before they’re able to cut him and save any amount of money. 

Even if he were cut before 2026 there would be a dead cap hit of $31.2 million!

The Broncos sacrificed their entire future for Russell Wilson and are essentially married to him for the next five years. 

With a good supporting cast, we have to be optimistic that Wilson will turn it around here soon. He’s a great buy low right now and you can use a 15x multiplier on him to massively increase your potential gain!

Prices are current as of 10/07/22 at 10:00 pm EST
Dalton Kates is a full time employee of Mojo. All trades you make are with Mojo, which sets the lines as the “house”. Recommendations are for entertainment purposes only. Please use your own judgment and data to make trades. 21+. Must be in NJ to trade. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER
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