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Week 2 Recap Part 1
Week 2 Recap Part 1

September 21, 2022

Browns vs Jets

Amari Cooper bounced back as an alpha with 10 targets. He now has a target on 25.4% of his routes this year. 

His 28% target share so far on the year is encouraging. We likely saw something close to his ceiling this week, but he should be consistent.

Donovan People-Jones showed Week 1’s elevated usage was a complete mirage. He got just one target after an elite target share a week ago; another reminder why small samples are hard to rely on. 

He still is likely the second receiving option, but it’s hard to expect more than one wide receiver to flourish in the Jacoby Brissett offense. 

Garrett Wilson became the second first round rookie wide receiver to get 14 or more targets in one of their first two career games. 

Wilson now has a 30.9% target per route run, but still hasn’t eclipsed snaps over Corey Davis as the second wide receiver. Wilson was utilized in the slot on 49% of his routes run, up from 32% the previous week. 

Wilson’s utilization is amazing considering he’s not even a full-time player yet. We shouldn’t be shocked if Garrett Wilson is a top 10 wide receiver in the league sooner than later.

Elijah Moore continued to run the most routes on the team. While being targeted on only 12% of his routes is a concern, the addition of Wilson will likely open up more for Moore. I’m not concerned about him long-term.

Breece Hall has garnered 43% of the running back touches in the backfield through two weeks. He has an impressive 4.85 yards after contact on his 13 carries, 5th highest of any running back in the league with 10+ carries. 

It’s only a matter of time before Hall is a workhorse and one of the best running backs in the league.

Bucs vs Saints

Chris Olave had a crazy game. He was targeted 13 times on 40 routes. He had an insane average depth of target (aDOT) of 24.6 and 365 air yards! He joined Mike Evans, AJ Green and Marquise Brown as the only wide receivers with 300+ air yards in a game since 2016.

Olave had a historic day even though the raw box score numbers don’t show it. The biggest takeaway is that he is very likely to have a breakout game soon. This usage is elite for any wide receiver, let alone a rookie. 

Expectations for Olave need to be heavily adjusted upwards he has a chance to be a star. 

Michael Thomas continued with great usage. Nine targets on on 42 routes is just more confirmation that he is probably back. He doesn’t have Drew Brees anymore, but we should still expect him to be productive consistently. 

Jaguars vs Colts

Trevor Lawrence has improved. His adjusted completion percentage is 5.7% higher so far and he’s averaging 0.9 yards per attempt more this year than last season. John Shipley of the Jaguars Report showed that he was 5th in QBR and 6th in EPA per play amongst QBs so far this year.

It’s still early, but the new offense along with improved weapons seem to have elevated Lawrence. I’m optimistic that Lawrence continues this trend and we see a much better version of him this year. 

Christian Kirk has a 24% target share. After paying him $18 million a year, they’re definitely using him. He could have a big fifth-year breakout this season. 

James Robinson has impressed through two games. He has handled 72% of the Jaguars running back carries and has an impressive 3.35 yards after contact. He’s also ran 46% of the running back routes. Robinson is the lead back in the committee for now.

Travis Etienne has been efficient, but he’s clearly the “1B”. Still this is basically Etienne’s rookie year after missing ‘21, so we should expect him to earn more touches. For now we must temper our expectations. 

Ashton Dulin took advantage of his opportunities. He now is second on the Colts in targets. He’s got targeted on 31% of his routes run and has a 3.21 yards per route run. Those are elite numbers even in a small sample. 

Parris Campbell ran the most routes, but he has only seen a target on 7% of his routes. There should be better days ahead for Campbell, but this is concerning.

I’m continuing to monitor Dulin. If he gets more opportunities in this offense, he is an under the radar player who can be productive. 

Dolphins vs Ravens

Tua Tagovailoa had a day. He now leads the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt through two weeks. He also is fifth amongst QBs in air yards, so far showing that this is at least somewhat sustainable. 

As a passer through two seasons his closest comparable quarterback was Josh Allen. The Bills traded for Stefon Diggs heading into his third year and the Dolphins have done the same with Tyreek Hill.

It’s within the range of outcomes for him to statistically be one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Having Hill and Jaylen Waddle at your disposal along with an offense that is top five in pass rate over expected through two weeks is about as perfect of a situation as you can be in. 

Waddle had a massive game earning 19 targets on 42 routes. It was everything we hoped to see.

Last season 28% of Waddle’s targets traveled 10 yards or further. So far this year 50% of Waddle’s targets have done so.

If Waddle can continue this utilization, he can be an elite wide receiver. 

Hill has a 31% target share through two weeks. In fact Waddle and Hill have combined for a 61% target share. They’ve also combined for a crazy 70% of the receiving yards. It’s an insane target funnel that is at least somewhat sustainable given their talent. 

Mike Gesicki bounced back, running the third most routes on the team. He saw an increase from 41% of plays where he ran a route on to 62%. 

The third option in this offense likely isn’t going to be too valuable consistently, but that is encouraging. 

Raheem Mostert saw 69% of the rushing carries and had 50/50 split on routes with Chase Edmonds this week. This is almost an exact opposite split from last week. 

This is evidence that they’re in a committee. Edmonds has to be viewed in a lesser light compared to a week ago. 

Rashod Bateman had a great game, taking a 75 yard slant to the house and his underlying metrics are also extremely encouraging. 

Through two games he has earned a target on 26% of his routes run despite having an aDOT of 16.0. His 3.55 yards per route run is off the charts and a 21% target share is very good.

If this offense starts opening up in the passing game, Bateman will have an even bigger ceiling. Right now he’s a superstar in a low volume passing offense capable of having splash games.

Steelers vs Patriots

Jakobi Meyers has an elite target share of 31% right now through two weeks. He’s been great at commanding targets on his routes. Over the last two years he’s commanded a target on 23% of his routes run. This year he is at 30%. 

It’s reasonable to assume that Meyes is going to continue earning targets at a high rate. 

With Ty Montgomery out, Rhamondre Stevenson ran 23 routes ahead of Damien Harris with nine. This usage is consistent with reports in camp about him being in this role.

George Pickens has played with the starters, but he’s not commanding targets at a high rate. It’s great that he has ran routes on 92% of dropbacks this year, but only seeing a target on 8% of his routes is concerning. 

Targets are earned, and Pickens is on the field a ton, so we could see him get more targets as the week progresses. It’s safe to say he’s not in the same tier as the top WRs in this elite class in usage. 

Lions vs Commanders

Jahan Dotson ran the most routes of any Washington wide receiver this week. It’s great to see him in a full-time role so soon. Ideally we want to see him earn more targets right now, but when targeted he has been efficient.

It’s likely Dotson commands more targets as the year ensues. He has looked very good and it’s promising for his future, but he’s not in the same tier as the top rookie wide receivers due to his inability to command targets at a high rate. 

Curtis Samuel continued to earn targets, but he has an aDOT of just 3.0, which severely limits his upside. 

It’s likely the targets on Washington will be spread out as the season goes on with McLaurin emerging as the true alpha.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is having an incredible start to his season. He has a 34% target share already this season. We are witnessing a continuation of his breakout late last year.

He has more targets and receptions by any WR drafted on Day three at age 21 or 22 ever. If he isn’t already viewed as a top 15 wide receiver in the league, he should be. 

Giants vs Panthers

David Sills ran the most routes of any Giants player this week. It’s a clear rotating committee here. 

Sterling Shepard was had a 33% target share and had a target on 26% of his routes run. He is likely the top receiving weapon on this team. 

Kenny Golladay just played two snaps. His career looks to be close to over if he can’t pick up snaps with this wide receiver grouping ahead of him. 

DJ Moore hasn’t had a hot start, but he’s still commanding a 21% target share . His target per route run and efficiency metrics are down from his career averages right now, but his usage within the offense is on par with career averages. 

I’m not worried about Moore right now, he’s proven to be a great player with bad QB play before. Better days are ahead. 

Baker Mayfield has struggled below career averages in the short parts of the passing game. 

He is averaging 4.0 yards per attempt on passes shorter than nine yards downfield. Last year Baker was at 6.4 yards per attempt. This is surprising considering he has Christian McCaffery at his disposal. 

It’s something to keep an eye on as Baker has been terrible so far, but he will likely positively regress a bit in this area.

Dalton Kates is a full time employee of Mojo. All trades you make are with Mojo, which sets the lines as the “house”. Recommendations are for entertainment purposes only. Please use your own judgment and data to make trades. 21+. Must be in NJ to trade. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER
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