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Share prices are accurate of 9/15/2022 at 12:00 PM ET
Wilson was a phenomenal prospect coming out of Ohio St. I old describe him as a hybrid of Calvin Ridley and Stefon Diggs with better after-catch ability.
In his first game, he only saw 56% of the snaps, making him the third wide receiver. However, Wilson ran 35 routes and was targeted on eight of them, which is extremely encouraging.
For rookie wide receivers it’s essential to look at efficiency from a per route basis early on. As the season progresses the efficient rookies will get more playing time production.
Wilson was utilized all around the formation, running in the slot 32% of the time and out wide 68%.
He checks all the boxes for becoming a star wide receiver in the league and Sunday was just another positive data point.
Week 1 couldn’t have been more concerning for Pierce.
After getting praised all offseason, it seemed like Pierce was going to be the main running back for the Texans. That was false as Rex Burkhead saw 71% of the snaps while Pierce only saw 29%.
Pierce also was not utilized in the receiving game, as he only ran five routes to Burkhead’s 25.
What really should ring the alarm bells is that the Texans were up by multiple scores and they still didn’t utilize him in that rushing role ahead of Burkhead.
The Texans came into the year with the lowest implied win total according to sportsbooks, so it’s unlikely that the Texans will be in many positive game scripts the rest of the year.
They also only invested a 4th round pick on Pierce, which shows that they can easily pivot away from him and upgrade the running back room next offseason.
Even if Pierce plays well, that’s likely what Houston will do. Michael Carter is a great example of this. As a 4th round rookie, Carter impressed with 964 scrimmage yards. That’s in the top five percent of all Day three rookie running backs dating back to 2011. And yet the Jets added running back Breece Hall in the draft.
Pierce’s role both this year and in the future have major question marks, which makes it a perfect time to sell.
We’ve been singing Pitts’ praises all offseason at Mojo and his season debut was…underwhelming. Two catches for 19 yards is rough, but a look behind the curtain should signal optimism.
Marcus Mariota targeted Pitts seven times, the most of any Falcon. He also had 93 air yards showing these targets were deep down the field. It’s only a matter of time before the switch flips and he starts turning these under-the-hood stats into meaningful production.
It was hard not to be optimistic about Penny after how dominant he was to end last season. Then the Seahawks drafted Ken Walker III in the second round and expectations for Penny were tempered.
Walker did not suit up for Week 1 due to a lingering sports hernia giving Penny the opportunity to run with the starting RB job in Seattle. However, he had just 12 carries, three targets, and two receptions.
He turned those 12 carries into 60 yards, but his lack of involvement in a game where the game script was generally positive is troubling. He gets the stout 49ers front seven this week and Walker is expected to be active, further cutting into his expected production.
Coming into this season Javonte Williams was a buy for me and his performance in Denver’s game Thursday night may have deterred some investors, but now is an even better opportunity to buy In Week 1 Melvin Gordon nearly doubled Williams the amount of carries, which caused Williams’ share price to drop slightly. But it was the younger Williams who played the vast majority of the snaps and enjoyed 12 targets as a receiver!, How long can Gordon actually remain “their guy” as a rusher? Go long on Williams now before his break-out moment.
We may not have a big enough sample size of Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Kansas City to bail on him, but I am selling all shares of MVS. Being a target for Patrick Mahomes in a powerhouse offense should be a great look for him, but are we suddenly forgetting who his last quarterback was? That’s right, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was able to bring out some bright spots in him, but never anything consistent. MVS managed just 41 yards of total offense for a team that racked up 44 points last weekend. It looks like more of the same inconsistency.
Sometimes you can profit on Mojo with basic math and intuition! Aaron Rodgers’s averages nearly $6 Mojo value per season, which includes his injury-shortened years. Three more average seasons (including some missed games) is $18 Mojo Value. After a poor Week 1, his future Mojo value below $15. If you think he plays three seasons or more, going long on him should be prudent. Can he do it? Yes! Rodgers is an all-time great and could play well into his 40’s. As with all veterans, I recommend adding the free multiplier to make your investment more about his future and increase potential gains (and risk).
Last week I suggested you sell Robby Anderson. I did NOT suggest you sell Robbie Anderson, who is an elite deep threat with a quarterback whose strength is throwing the deep ball!
Leonard Fournette jumped 9.3% last week on the realization that he’s still quite good and rookie Rachaad White is not instantly going to eat into his opportunity. However, father time is undefeated, and Fournette needs three more full workhorse-type seasons to hit his future value. That’s possible, but I will bet against that between White’s presence, health and decline risk.
The eighth overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft had an excellent NFL debut. He led all Falcons receivers in yardage and receptions. He flashed his ability to exploit matchups and be used all over the field. I think he has an incredibly bright future in Atlanta, and I also think he’ll get off to a hot start this season.
Listen, I know everyone is hands-off on Akers right now, but his price on Mojo is still way too high. I think that his career is unfortunately on a downward spiral following his three rushes for zero yards performance on Thursday Night Football. I’d be surprised if Akers is ever a starter in the NFL again given the poor history of players coming back from Achilles injuries and his mediocre stats in the Rams’ Super Bowl run.
