Few personify exceeding expectations better than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Most 7th round picks do little, if anything, in the NFL.
As a result, Fitzpatrick’s debut share price on Mojo would have been close to $2, which means that the market in 2005 would have expected his career-ending Mojo Value to be about $2. (For reference, Drew Brees retired with $132 Mojo Value.)
Fast forward nearly 20 years: no QB selected in the 7th round or later has thrown more touchdowns than Fitzpatrick (223) since 1960.
“Fitz” broke out in 2010 as the Buffalo Bills’ starting QB. He threw for 3,000 yards in 13 games and had more touchdowns than interceptions for the first time in his career. In that one year alone, his price on Mojo would have nearly doubled.
He also earned one of his nicknames, “Fitztragic,” with inconsistent performances and playing time. In total, Fitzpatrick’s share price dropped 150 different weeks during his career! His price dropped by 10% or more at various points during five different seasons, which would have made shorting his stock profitable if timed correctly.
Fitzpatrick’s actual career-ending Mojo Value: $52.23! Good for a lifetime return of over 2,000% if you had (somehow) had the foresight to get in on the ride early!
Fitz’ story is not typical. We highlighted his roller coaster journey because it was fun, exciting, and unpredictable. Most investments in late round picks will not yield Fitzpatrick’s “Tesla-like” returns.