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Summary:
Did you see Amon-Ra St. Brown’s breakout rookie season coming? It’s extremely uncommon for wide receivers selected in the 4th round to dominate in their rookie seasons. Just 19 such wide receivers EVER have surpassed 500 yards in their first campaign. Since 1997, only 10 wide receivers have accomplished that.
This historical context explains why Amon-Ra St. Brown would have cost only $3.40 if you had invested in him before Week 1 in 2021. (That means the expectations for his career-ending Mojo Value were $3.40.)
Fast forward to the end of the 2021 Regular Season and St. Brown had the 3rd best season by a 4th round pick of all-time, with 912 receiving yards. He had more catches (90) than any such WR ever. The next closest? Mike Williams (65) in 2010.
As you can see from his share price graph, the breakout was gradual until a late season spike. He had an incredible run to cap off the season, gaining 10% value or more in five out of six weeks. (What happened that other week? He only gained 5%... slacker.)
Although he only banked $1.59 Mojo Value as a rookie, his performance lifts his entire career trajectory. As of this writing, the market expects another $13.13 in future Mojo Value! Hope you’re not superstitious!
St. Brown’s 2021 price growth is not typical. Most investments in 4th round picks will not yield St. Brown’s incredible returns. However, his story does provide a frame of reference for what breakout seasons from relatively unheralded prospects look like in terms of price movement.
Who is the next diamond in the rough capable of crushing the market’s latest career expectations?
