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Buys and Sells Week 3
Buys and Sells Week 3

September 23, 2022

Long: Treylon Burks ($11.38)

Burks hasn’t made a splash like Garrett Wilson or Drake London, but there is still plenty of reason to go long on the Titans’ WR. 

In college, Burks broke out as a freshman with 20.5% of his team’s receiving yards. He followed that up with 34.1% and 40.4% in subsequent years before declaring early for the NFL draft and being drafted in the 1st round. Suffice it to say, he was a very good prospect. 

Through two games, Burks has run a route on 47.6% of Tennessee’s passing plays and been targeted on 37% of those routes (higher than London at 33% and Wilson at 31%). This is not to say that he has been the best rookie WR, but on his routes so far, he has been impressive. 

Furthermore, a player of his 1st round pedigree will be entrusted with more routes soon and when that comes, a breakout may soon follow. I would definitely want to be early on a player like Burks who could explode in any given week.

Long: Breece Hall ($10.19)

Breece Hall is the definition of a box-checker. He has athleticism (RAS of 9.96) and terrific draft capital (2nd round, pick 36). He was also an early declare for the NFL draft. 

Most importantly, he was an elite producer in college with 52.6%, 66.8%, and 70.2% of his team’s rushing yards in his three years of college. He is also a good dual threat with 6.23%, 6.22%, and 8.8% of his team’s receiving yards in college. 

For reference, his collegiate career average of 63% of his team’s rushing yards landed within 5% of Jonathan Taylor (64%), Cam Akers (59%), Saquon Barkley (60%), and Dalvin Cook (67%).

Of those RBs, his collegiate career average of 7% of his team’s receiving yards is within 2 percentage points of Jonathan Taylor (6%), Cam Akers (5%), and Dalvin Cook (9%). 

Much like many other round two rookies (who were also good prospects) like Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, JK Dobbins, and Cam Akers; it is ok that Breece Hall didn’t start as the RB1 right out of the gate. The talented prospects prevail and Breece will take over this backfield as the season progresses.

Long: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($14.99)

Amon-Ra has been on an absolute tear over his last eight games registering 68 receptions for 867 yards and nine TDs. He’s been silencing doubters in the first two games this season with games of eight receptions for 64 yards and one TD and 9 receptions for 116 yards and two TDs. 

However, he remains behind players like Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, and Garrett Wilson in future value and is tied with his Lions’ teammate Jameson Williams. 

Someone who has established himself as a bonafide target hog and producer at the level that Amon-Ra should have future value closer to the range of Tee Higgins ($15.02) and Jaylen Waddle ($16.48)

Short: Adam Trautman ($4.04)

I'll make this one quick because it's Adam f****** Trautman. The third-year TE has virtually no career production with $0.70 in banked production yet the market thinks that he will bank $3.34 of production before he retires.

However, after multiple disappointing seasons, he has been shown the bench playing only 28 passing snaps to Juwan Johnson’s 72. Furthermore, he is blocking on 46% of his passing snaps compared to Johnson’s 10%.

Trautman isn’t the most relevant player, but this one seems like a lay-up

Short: Travis Etienne ($12.40)

When I sat down to write, I did not expect to put Travis Etienne in this section of the article, but the second-year RB currently sits at 2nd in future value on Mojo with $12.30.

This lies only a hair behind Jonathan Taylor’s future value of $12.55 and ahead of players like D’Andre Swift, Najee Harris, and Saquon Barkley. 

Through two weeks of the NFL season, Travis Etienne has been out-carried by James Robinson 34 to 13 and is in a dead heat for receiving work with 36 routes to Robinson’s 31.

While Etienne has only played 2 NFL games in his career and can certainly improve from here, the market is far too aggressive on his career outlook.

Short: RBs near the end of their 1st contracts

David Montgomery ($15.58), Miles Sanders ($12.15), and Josh Jacobs ($13.70) all have three things in common: they were all drafted in 2019, they all have contracts expiring after the 2022 season, and they all have future value higher than banked value. 

Historically, relying on 2nd contract production from RBs- especially if they switch teams- is a bad bet with many RBs falling off in years 4-6 of their careers. As a result of this, Montgomery, Miles, and Jacobs are not sustainable bets to perform to their future value.

Akash Patel is a contributing writer on Mojo. All trades you make are with Mojo, which sets the lines as the “house”. Recommendations are for entertainment purposes only. Please use your own judgment and data to make trades. 21+. Must be in NJ to trade. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER
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