Paul Sancya/Associated Press
The stock NBA is a fickle beast. Values can change dramatically over the course of a year, a month, a week or even just 24 hours! In my first piece for Mojo, I took a look at three players’ stocks who have been trending down and why you should take this opportunity to buy the dip and Go Long.
For those new to the NBA market, here’s the formula for Mojo Value:
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @ZaktheMonster and let me know what you think!
Kuzma’s stock has fallen slightly over the last month. He banged knees in Saturday’s loss to Toronto and sat out Sunday against the Bucks, so a slight drop in value isn’t too shocking.
Yet, Kuzma is having a breakout season averaging career-highs in minutes (35.2), points (21.4), assists (3.8) and threes (2.6) to go along with 7.3 rebounds. He’s flourishing away from Lebron James’ shadow with increased usage and at just 27 years old, Kuzma is firmly in his prime.
He’s earned $54.70 in his career for an average of $9.10 per season. His Future Value is $57.73, which means the market expects another five and a half years of production, or until he’s 33 years old, at his career’s rate.
Remember, that average yearly Mojo Value earned includes four seasons in Los Angeles with a significantly lesser role. He averaged 15.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.8 three-pointers in those four seasons with the Lakers.
Compare those numbers to what he’s put up in two seasons in Washington – 19.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.3 three-pointers – and it seems like the market is underrating Kuzma. Take advantage of the dip and Go Long on a player who hasn’t played his best ball yet.
The fourth overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft has had a season full of ebbs and flows. His February got off to a slow start – he scored seven points in three games – before erupting for a career high 30 with eight 3PM just after. Three games later, he was back in single-digit scoring despite logging 30 minus per game. That stretch is a microcosm of his first year in the league.
Murray’s most recent drop in value is surely a result of Saturday’s stinker against Minnesota, where scored zero points with three rebounds and two assists across 20 minutes.
This was easily the rookie’s worst game of the season and not cause enough of concern to panic about his future. On the season, Murray has averaged 11.9 points, 4.6 boards, 1.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks and 2.5 triples. Murray himself believes he can take the next step forward and improve his defense, while his coach believes he can become a more gifted scorer by becoming more selfish and deciding to take a game over.
As of now, Murray’s stock is slightly cheaper than RJ Barrett ($128.09) and right above teammate Kevin Huerter ($123.19).
Barrett has proven to be a volume-based scorer who offers little outside of his ability to put up points and Huerter is simply a three-point specialist. Neither seem to have the same potential for the type of well-rounded skill set Murray is on track to developing.
Filling the stat sheet is very valuable on Mojo and why I’m ultimately Going Long on Murray.
One of the most electric rookies in the 2022 NBA Draft class, Ivey went fifth to the Pistons and has impressed as a rookie. The Purdue product has averaged 15.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.4 triples across 30.1 minutes per contest. His athleticism was his calling-card as a prospect and has shone through thus far.
The only qualm with Ivey heading into the season was his potential fit as the Pistons’ second option with Cade Cunningham. The backcourt tandem only played 11 games together before Cunningham sustained a season-ending injury, but Ivey’s points, rebounds, steals and FG% were all better when sharing the court with the 2021 No. 1 overall pick.
It was a small sample size, but we’ve now seen how gifted Ivey can be as an off-guard and as a primary facilitator, so any concerns about future value should be allayed. However, his stock has trended down a bit over the last month.
His numbers have been relatively steady across the board and he’s even taken a step forward in several categories since the start of February. Are bettors starting to panic now that the season is coming to a close, and Ivey will eventually take a backseat to Cunningham rather than running the offense.
Ivey has earned $5.55 as a rookie, that’s just 28% less than Jalen Green earned last year and the Pistons still have 17 games left. He has shown elite potential as a rookie and will likely never have a lower share price than he does right now.
If you need further convincing about Ivey’s incredible potential, look no further than Tuesday’s performance against the Wizards. Detroit was missing everyone and their grandmother, yet the team managed to take a mostly healthy Wizards team to the brink and lost on a Daniel Gafford buzzer-beater put back.
Ivey finished with 26 points, 12 dimes, five boards, a steal and three triples. His two highest assist contests have come in his last two games (13 on Monday against Portland), showing that the young guard is only getting better as the season goes on.