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Young WR Stock Watch
Young WR Stock Watch

November 16, 2022

Being ahead of the public on young players is fun. Buying stock in those players and making money on your investment is even more fun. This article takes a look at three young wide receivers and whether we should be Going Long or Short on their stock right now. 

Rondale Moore $8.31 (3x Long Multiplier)

Moore was effectively used as a gadget player his rookie season. He played on just 47.5% of the snaps and had a route participation rate of just 52.5%. Per PlayerProfiler, he went over 40 air yards (total distance traveled by all intended targets) just once in 14 games played. 

This season, he’s playing on 92.5% of the snaps and has a route participation rate of 96.5%. He’s seen over 40 air yards in three of seven games. His target share has also increased from 14.3% as a rookie to 22.9% this season. 

Essentially, he’s earned a full-time role and has taken advantage despite sharing the field with Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, and DeAndre Hopkins. He's yet to play with both Hollywood and Hopkins at the same time, but now Ertz is out for the season.

Had you invested $100 in Moore one month ago when his share price was $7.47 and used his 3x Multiplier, you’d be up $31.95 today. 

Now, even at his share price of $8.31, I still believe there’s plenty of room for him to grow. With $1.37 banked, his current share price implies a future value of $6.94. For comparison, his future value of $6.94 is $3.13 less than Elijah Moore, whose share price currently sits at $10.07. 

Generally, I like to advise investing in good, young players on high-powered offenses. Moore fits that mold as a  22 year old on a Cardinals team averaging the most plays per game this season (68.8). 

His production and opportunity jump from Year 1 to Year 2 also suggests he’s an ascending talent. Also, Hopkins will be 31 before next season starts and there’s no guarantee he continues to command targets at such a high clip. Even still, there will be enough targets to go around in Arizona for three receivers to be relevant on a consistent basis. 

Go Long on Moore now before his stock price rises any further and make sure to use the 3x Multiplier to potentially increase your return. 

Kadarius Toney $7.34 (3x Long Multiplier)

One year ago, Toney’s share price was $9.77. There was optimism surrounding the Giants’ 2021 first round draft choice after posting a 28.9% target rate his rookie season. While injuries slowed him down a tad, it was clear Toney could play

Fast forward a year, and Toney plays for the Kansas City Chiefs. He’s paired up with arguably the NFL’s best quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, and might just be their best long term option at WR. JuJu Smith-Schuster is on a one-year deal and Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s three-year contract has a potential out after the 2022 season.

Toney stepped up and tallied 90 total yards and a touchdown last week after Smith-Schuster was forced to leave the game with a concussion. He saw five targets on his 15 routes run and was given two rush attempts. With JuJu potentially out in Week 11, we should see Toney take on an even more prominent role in the offense. 

This guy is absolutely electric, just 23 years old, and is tied to Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs offense for the foreseeable future. At just $7.34 a share, Toney is a bargain right now especially considering his share price once peaked at $10.63. With $0.86 of banked value, Toney’s Future Value sits at $6.48, which is less than Chase Claypool ($7.25) and Alec Pierce ($7.04). 

Invest now prior to Week 11 when he sees another uptick in snap share and solidifies himself as a starting receiver for the Chiefs. Go Long and use that 3x Multiplier to increase your earnings when his share price goes up throughout the remainder of the 2022 season. 

Jahan Dotson $11.40 (2x Short Multiplier)

Don’t get me wrong, I think Dotson is a good football player. The problem is, his share price is reflective of an alpha WR1. In fact, his current future value of $11.05 is more than Michael Pittman’s future value ($10.55).

It’s not to say Dotson can’t turn into a WR1 for the Commanders, but he hasn’t been all that dominant as a rookie. 

In fact, he’s earned just a 12% target share and 13.4% target rate. His share price of $11.40 seems over-inflated based on the fact that he scored four touchdowns in his first four career games. However, his touchdown rate of 18% after those games was never going to be sustainable.

With Terry McLaurin under contract through the 2024 season, Dotson has an uphill battle to become that clear WR1 we need him to be to pay-off at his current share price. Go Short and use the 2x multiplier on a rookie wide receiver that has yet to catch more than four passes or clear 59 receiving yards in any one game this season.  

Prices are current as of 11/16/22 at 3:00 PM EST
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