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Rookie Report: Week 11
Rookie Report: Week 11


November 18, 2022

Kyren Williams RB, Rams: $1.59 (2x Long Multiplier)

While he is a bit undersized for an NFL running back (5-foot-9, 195-pounds), Kyren Williams’ passing-catching prowess, pass-protection skills, and demonstrated ability to play bigger than he is should help him retain a regular role in an NFL offense. “But he had a subpar performance at the NFL Combine.” I’m here to let you know that a player testing poorly at the Combine is not the end of the world. In regards to Williams, his 4.65-second 40-yard dash speed, substandard 32-inch vertical leap, and other not-so-ideal test results won’t stop him from reeling in the rock when it’s thrown his way. The tape never lies, and Williams’ college tape shows us that he can be a reliable weapon when used correctly through the air, and on the ground. 

That said, the likelihood of Williams ever being “the guy” in an NFL offense is slim due to his size. You need to be able to take on hit after hit to be a workhorse back at the highest level, and understandably, most don’t view Williams as that type of player. Fortunately, he doesn’t have to be a workhorse back to help his Mojo Market investors profit. In other words, Going Long on Williams with his 2x Multiplier could net you a very solid return in the long run. 

Remember James White (5-foot-10, 205-pounds)? He played in 95 games as a pro, but never carried the ball more than 14 times in a game. In fact, he toted the rock 10 or more times on just four separate occasions. Nevertheless, he ended his career with 3,278 receiving yards, 1,278 rushing yards, and 36 total touchdowns. Knowing what we know about Mojo Value, we can conclude that White amassed $3.28 in Mojo Value with just his receiving yards — $1.69 more than Williams’ current share price. This tells us that if Williams truly does follow a similar career trajectory, he’s one of the easiest investments in the Mojo Market right now. 

He made his NFL debut on November 13th against Arizona and, right away, his pass-catching upside was on display, as he caught all three of his targets for 30 yards. As a whole, Williams is an undersized back who thrives as a pass-catcher and a pass-blocker, which should help keep his snaps steady on a week-to-week basis. He doesn’t project as a lead back, but he’s talented enough to produce solid numbers on the ground, as well as through the air.

Think RBs don't have upside on Mojo? Williams is +81.4% with his 2x Multipler over the last month. Going Long on a player before their share price rises is just one of the ways to win in the Mojo Market; buy Williams and enjoy what should be a more than ordinary career. 

Kyren Williams stock has been a good investment over the last 30D

Brian Robinson RB, Commanders: $6.45 (2x Short Multiplier)

I’ll admit, the term “plodder” is overused. Some stuffed the great Derrick Henry into that characterization early in his career, and we all know that Henry is about as good as it gets when it comes to producing on the ground. So even though the term is overused, and misused, there are certainly a fair amount of plodders in today’s NFL – and I genuinely believe that Brian Robinson is one of them. Yes, he runs hard. Yes, he’s effective between the tackles. And yes, he’s certainly a threat to score whenever he’s used near the goal line, but he lacks the necessary “wiggle”, agility, vision, and overall athleticism to be a true impact back in this league unless he’s getting a ton of volume. In other words, he’s an average athlete who stumbled into an ideal situation in Washington. The volume that he’s receiving right now is nice to see, but it’s more of a mirage than anything. 

The 6-foot-2, 225-pound back was a five-year player at Alabama, with his fifth year unsurprisingly being his most productive. He rushed for 1,343 yards on 271 carries as a senior while also catching 35 passes for 296 receiving yards. The Commanders took him with the 98th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, and since Week 5, he’s been their most featured back  – a remarkable accomplishment considering he got shot just a couple of weeks before the season commenced. It’s truly a beautiful tale of perseverance, but beautiful tales aren’t what you’re looking for when it comes to Shorting or Longing in the Mojo Market.

Going Short on Robinson should prove to be a rewarding move in the long run. At the time of this writing, players such as Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6.35), Michael Carter ($6.21), and Alexander Mattison ($7.33) have comparable prices to Robinson, yet all three have certain traits that Robinson just lacks. His share price is inflated because of opportunity, not because he’s a back who should be featured in an NFL offense. Take advantage of this and Go Short on the plodder before the Market – and the Commanders – come to their senses. 

Brian Robinson's all-time share price graph

George Pickens WR, Steelers: $10.47 (3x Long Multiplier)

One of the most dynamic wide receivers from this past NFL Draft, Pickens has what some like to call “it”. The walk, the talk, and the play to back it up, Pickens profiles as a future alpha receiver in the NFL – at least in my humble opinion. An ACL tear limited him to just four games played in 2021, and when you take a look at his collegiate career as a whole, he never had a truly notable campaign outside of his solid freshman season (49 receptions, 727 receiving yards, eight touchdowns). Why? Well, injuries: the aforementioned ACL tear, and a shoulder injury that he suffered in 2020. Still, the Steelers liked him enough to select him 52nd overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, and that alone says a great deal about how they view the young wideout. For some players – the special players – there’s only so much you need to see when evaluating their play, and Pickens absolutely falls into that category. 

At 6-foot-3, 200-pounds, Pickens has the size and catch radius to reel in those tough grabs, and we’ve seen this skill set on display already. Additionally, he has no issue with gaining separation off the line, and winning at the top of his routes with his “my ball” mentality. He’s going to be a true deep-play threat and end-zone threat for the entirety of his NFL career. You would like to see some more refinement with his route running, but because he’s so proficient in other areas, he doesn’t need to be the best route runner in order to make a significant impact on a week-to-week basis. On top of all that, he’s a ruthless blocker, a trait that will help keep him on the field. All things considered, Pickens has the potential to be a number one option in an NFL offense. 

On the year Pickens is +49% (almost +150% with his 3x Multiplier). But you're not too late! As of today, his share price sits lower than fellow rookies Jahan Dotson ($11.42) and Drake London ($14.11), which is interesting because he could finish his career with a higher share price than both. Sometimes evaluating young talent doesn't have to be hard, and when it comes to Pickens, a simple tape assessment should leave you feeling rather giddy about his future prospects. Go long on Pickens today, and for your own sake, don’t look back. And don’t forget to utilize that sweet, sweet Multiplier that’ll make your investment even more exhilarating.

George Pickens 1Y share price
Prices are current as of 11/18/22 at 12:00 pm EST
Micah Henry is a Contributing Writer on Mojo. All trades you make are with Mojo, which sets the lines as the “house”. Recommendations are for entertainment purposes only. Please use your own judgment and data to make trades. 21+. Must be in NJ to trade. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER
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