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Risers and Fallers: Week 12
Risers and Fallers: Week 12

Associated Press

Published
11/30/2022
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Updated
November 30, 2022

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Risers

Mike White (+33.7%)

There’s no bigger story in the NFL right now than White. His stock jumped 50% last week when Robert Saleh announced he’d be the starter and it kept soaring after his fantastic game Sunday.

White was incredibly efficient, leading all QBs in EPA per play, QBR, passer rating, and completion percentage Sunday, while throwing for more passing yards in the first half than Zach Wilson threw in his last two games! He left no doubt as to who would be the Jets’ starter moving forward.

His stock has risen over 90% since Wilson’s disastrous game in New England last week. Users who knew Wilson would fall apart and invested in White could have profited big time. A $1,000 bet then would be worth over $3,600 today with his Multiplier.

Jordan Love (+12.6%)

Love finally got his chance Sunday night when Aaron Rodgers was forced from the Packers’ game with an apparent rib injury. He promptly threw a strike to Christian Watson who ran it in for a 60 yard TD and appeared very comfortable operating the offense. 

Rodgers said he’s healthy enough to suit up this week, but there’s a compelling case for Love to be the Packers’ starting QB for the rest of the season regardless. They have just a 3% chance to make the playoffs according to FiveThirtEight. That’s worse odds than the Panthers, Jaguars, and Raiders. The clock is also ticking on them to pick up Love’s fifth year option as he’s attempted just 80 passes since being drafted in 2020.

His share price sunk to an all-time low of $3.29 on September 4th, the same range as projected Day 3 picks and career back-ups Cooper Rush, Grayson McCall, and Taulia Tagovailoa. Even still, his Future Value is less than $5 which is similar to old QBs without much time left (Tom Brady, Matt Ryan) and middling, back-up types (Marcus Mariota, Gardner Minshew, Sam Darnold) who are unlikely to be starters for more than a full-season ever again. 

His stock could soar if he plays well enough to guarantee starts next season and beyond.

Brian Robinson (+8.5%)

We don’t have many injury comps for Robinson, victim of multiple gunshot wounds. So, there was a lack of optimism when he lumbered to 3.4 Y/A over his first seven games compared to someone with a more recognizable knee or hamstring injury.

Well, the explosion seemed to return this past week as he averaged nearly six yards per touch and broke the 100 yard mark for the first time in his career.

More importantly, he received three targets in the passing game after seeing just four total to this point and had 21 opportunities to Antonio Gibson’s 12. This could be the beginning of a strong run of play.

Jelani Woods (+6.4%)

An afterthought since scoring twice Week 1, Woods starred on Monday night leading the Colts with 98 yards on eight catches. He accounted for nearly half of Matt Ryan’s 198 passing yards and made plenty of big plays.

Woods’ snap shares have sat around 20% most of the season in a timeshare with Kyle Granson and Mo Allie-Cox. He played 41 of 64 snaps (64%) with Granson out and ran a route on nearly 70% of Ryan’s dropbacks. He will likely fall back into a when Granson returns but it was nice to see this flash from the freaky 6’7”, 250 lbs., third round pick. 

Fallers

Davis Mills (-24.0%)

Mike White wasn’t the only former back-up QB to be elevated last week: The Texans opted for Kyle Allen in place of Mills, tanking his stock.

Allen was not impressive, but Mills hasn’t looked great in his sophomore season and this move is a very clear indication the Texans’ 2023 QB is not currently on their roster.

Mills’ Future Value has sunk all the way down to $5.86, similar to QBs like Brady and Ryan, meaning the market does not expect him to play more than another season or so worth of games in the rest of his career.

Dameon Pierce (-4.4%)

Pierce’s slide continued with another lackluster game. He received a season low five carries and turned them into just eight yards. This marked three straight weeks where his touches have fallen since his 27 carry, 139 yard outburst against the Eagles. 

The Texans were down 30-0 in the first half, so it shouldn’t be shocking to see a lead back with five carries. The concern comes from Houston’s handling of Pierce’s role. They continue to give Rex Burkehead a role, brought in Eno Benjamin for more depth, and have Dare Ogunbowale for third downs. 

Pierce is trending towards being a role player rather than the potential star he seemed just last month. The market expects him to earn the eighth most Future Value of any RB in the market and WELL more than any other Day 3 pick. It’s hard to rationalize him having a more productive career than Rhamondre Stevenson from this point on.

Nyheim Hines (-3.9%)

The Bills traded for Hines at the trade deadline but have totally neglected to use him. He’s logged just 24 snaps since being acquired from the Colts and has seen just three targets and two rushing attempts.

His price spiked from $7.69 to $8.19 after the move with the indication Buffalo had a plan in place to make use of him in their high-powered offense. That no longer seems true.

Tyler Boyd (-4.0%)

Boyd was supposed to step into a larger role with Ja’Marr Chase out with a hip injury. In games with Chase active, he saw a 14% target share. Without Chase, that number was 16%. Not a huge difference there.

He didn’t surpass 50 yards in any of the four games Chase missed and now he’s due back this coming week. Still a very solid player, Boyd’s production has once again proved sporadic.

Prices are current as of 11/30/22 at 3:00 PM EST
James Schiano is a full time employee of Mojo. All trades you make are with Mojo, which sets the lines as the “house”. Recommendations are for entertainment purposes only. Please use your own judgment and data to make trades. 21+. Must be in NJ to trade. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER
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