Mojo Case Study: New England Patriots QBs Weeks 1 - 8

Who: Mac Jones & Bailey Zappe

Summary: Both QBs could have yielded big returns depending which one you chose to Long or Short… and when!

When: Sep 8, 2022 through Nov 2, 2022

Results:

• Jones (-33%, +100% with Short Multiplier)
• Zappe (+104%, +313% with Long Multiplier)

What happened?

Sept 8

• Other than Trevor Lawrence, Jones entered 22’ as the market’s clear favorite QB from the 21’ draft class after being selected for the Pro Bowl and leading the Patriots to the playoffs in his rookie season.
• Rookie Bailey Zappe enters 22’ as a no-name 3rd string QB from Western Kentucky who will be lucky to see the field.

Sept 28

• Mac (-14%, +42% with Short Multiplier since 9/8) is diagnosed with a high ankle sprain. 
• His stock dips considerably due to uncertainty regarding the timeline of his recovery.

Oct 2

• Zappe (+27%, +81% with Long Multiplier since 9/8) is brought in Week 4 after Brian Hoyer leaves the game with a concussion. 
• Forces OT against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in his first NFL game. Mac is still the unquestioned QB1.

Oct 9

• Zappe (+15%, 45% with Long Multiplier since 10/2) collects his first NFL win as the Patriots shutout the Lions. 
• Quarterback controversy conversations among Patriots fans begin.

Oct 16

• Zappe (+9%, +27% with Long Multiplier since 10/9) continues to thrive
• He is 2-1, with his one loss coming in OT
• Some believe Jones’ job security is fading

Oct 20

• Mac (-1%, +2% with Short Multiplier since 9/28) is announced the starter for Week 7, but his stock does not tick up
• Zappe’s stellar play has led the market to wonder if he may be the future in New England

Oct 24 - 1st Half

• Jones (-17%, +51% with Short Multiplier since 10/20) is benched at the beginning of the 2Q after a bad INT
• Zappe (+24%, +71% with Long Multiplier since 10/16) comes in with 11:55 remaining in the 2Q
• The stadium erupts, as fans have chanted for Zappe since falling behind 10-0
• The rookie produces back to back touchdown drives, and the market reflects a belief by some fans that the Patriots have found another diamond in the rough

Oct 24 - 2nd Half

• Zappe (-17.4%, +34.8% with Short Multiplier since 1H) plays poorly in the 2nd half 
• The Patriots offense is shutout the rest of the way with the rookie throwing 2 INTs

Oct 30

• Jones (-6%, +18% with Short Multiplier since 10/24 1H) gets the start in Week 8. His mediocre statistical performance drops his stock price
• Zappe (-9%, +18% with Short Multiplier since 10/24 2H) doesn’t see the field in Week 8. His future with the Patriots is dependent on Mac Jones’ performance… or a trade.