Mojo Case Study: Indianapolis Colts QBs Weeks 1 - 10

Who: Matt Ryan & Sam Ehlinger

Summary: Unexpected and abrupt changes created opportunities for big returns, depending which one you chose to Long or Short… and when!

When: Sep 11, 2022 through Nov 14, 2022

Max 24H Movement: 

• Ryan (-4%, +40% with 10x Short Multiplier)
• Ehlinger (+211%, +422% with 2x Long Multiplier)

End of Period Results:

• Ryan (-4%, +40% with 10x Short Multiplier)
• Ehlinger (-7%, +14% with 2x Short Multiplier)

What happened?

Sept 11

• The Colts paid a 3rd round pick to acquire Matt Ryan a year after a failed Carson Wentz experiment. 
• As a sixth-round pick in 21’, Ehlinger is 3rd on the depth chart behind Ryan and Nick Foles. A strong preseason gives him some buzz, but it’s unclear whether he’s even the backup. 

Oct 3

• Ryan (-3%, +30% with 10x Short Multiplier) struggles to start the season, going 1-2-1 in his first 4 weeks. Ball security is an issue as he has 8 turnovers through Week 4.

Oct 24

• After 7 weeks, Ryan (-3.4%, +34% with 10x Short Multiplier) is benched after underperforming and suffering a Grade 2 shoulder separation. 
• His season appears to be over. Reich says that while injured, Ryan was benched due to his poor performance, not his injury.
• In a shocking move, 2nd year QB Sam Ehlinger (+290%, +580% with 2x Long Multiplier) is announced the starter. Frank Reich and the coaching staff believe Ehlinger is ready to start. Reich says “the move is for Sam to be the starter for the rest of the season”.

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Nov 6

• Ehlinger (-19%, +38% with 2x Short Multiplier) loses his first two games as a starter. 

Nov 13

• Ehlinger (-71%, +141% with 2x Short Multiplier) is benched moments before the game by new head coach Jeff Saturday. Ehlinger’s chance is over, causing his stock to plummet. 
• Ryan (+2.6%, +38% with 2x Long Multiplier) returns to his starting role. He secures a win in his first start back going 21/28 for 222 yds and 1 TD with 0 TOs. 

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