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College Football QB Preview: Week 12
College Football QB Preview: Week 12

Associated Press

November 18, 2022


C.J. Stroud, Ohio State: $34.53

While Bryce Young has (somewhat) faltered, Stroud continues to put up huge numbers. He leads the nation in Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt (AY/A), CFB passer rating, NFL passer rating, yards per play, and touchdown percentage.

If anything, he could stand to use his legs a bit more, but there’s almost no need with his fantastic efficiency and the receivers at his disposal. His 4.8% turnover worthy play (TWP) percentage is 8th highest in the country and signals his decision-making could stand to improve slightly as well.

His stock has risen 10% since the college market opened and he’s still expected to be either the first or second QB off the board in April. In terms of NFL QBs, his priced just ahead of Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance: highly drafted but have yet to prove their worth.

Caleb Williams, USC: $29.89

Possibly the most physically gifted QB in the country, Williams routinely makes jaw-dropping plays with both his arms and legs.

He’s 5th in AY/A, 7th in CFB passer rating, 9th in total yards per play, 2nd to last in interception percentage, and 12th among QBs in runs of 10 or more yards. He has every tool in his bag and has USC firmly in the playoff picture.

He is the highest priced player in the 2024 draft class and has seen his stock rise 17% this season. If a user invested $500 in Williams with his 3x Multiplier they’d have already profited more than $250.

Drake Maye, North Carolina: $20.10

Nothing to see here, just possibly the best 19-year-old QB we’ve ever seen. He threw for another 448 yards and 3 TD last week plus 71 more and another score on the ground. 

The red-shirt freshman hasn’t thrown an interception in more than 120 attempts and has 15 TDs and nearly 1,800 total yards in his last four games. 

Expected to be just mobile and not a true dual-threat, Maye has the 3rd most runs of 10 or more yards in the country, 7th most of 15+, and just one fewer missed tackle forced than the elusive Hendon Hooker. He is quite literally a freak of nature. 

His price rose 11% last Saturday and is now only cheaper than Young, Stroud, and Williams. 

Quinn Ewers, Texas: $18.27

Heading in the opposite direction as Maye, Ewers had another poor game last week against TCU. He completed fewer than 50% of his passes, threw an interception, and Texas did not score a single offensive TD in the loss. 

Ewers’ status as an elite QB is beginning to come into question. His stock has fallen 9% over the last month as he’s now well behind Maye and only just slightly more expensive than Hooker. Could the golden-boy be at risk to lose his starting job to Arch Manning next fall?

Will Levis, Kentucky: $17.01

Still (allegedly) a hot NFL commodity, Levis has had a disastrous senior season. He’s second in the country with 45 drive killing plays (sacks, fumbles, interceptions) in just nine games.

Apart from the mistakes, he hasn’t been particularly effective either. Levis sits 31st in AY/A, 22nd in CFB passer rating, 85th in rushing yards per game with an awful NEGATIVE 13.7 (keep in mind, sacks count as negative rushing yards in college football), 59th in yards per play, and the 3rd highest interception percentage. Really, really bad

He’s priced like a very early Day 2 pick despite these massive warts. So, you could still speculatively invest in Levis if you remain certain he will find his way into the first round of April’s draft.

Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: $8.47

Dart struggled badly against Alabama last week in a losing effort. His 6.8 yards per attempt and 2.2 yards per rush were each nearly seasons’ worst and it felt like he couldn’t find that big play to get his Rebels over the hump.

Still having a fine season overall, he has the 11th best Big Time Throw (BTT) rate, 13th most rushing yards per game, and 3rd most runs of 15 or more yards.

I’d be shocked if an NFL scout or GM didn’t fall in love with Dart over the next calendar year. He will be draft eligible in 2024 with incredible tools and more than 30 collegiate starts under his belt.

Currently priced like a high Day 3 pick (between Desmond Ridder and Bailey Zappe), his stock has risen 11% this season and there’s enough athletic projection built into his profile to reasonably expect more.

Cameron Rising, Utah: $5.16

Rising made it clear he wasn’t returning to Utah this week essentially declaring for the 2023 NFL Draft. Perhaps a transfer is in play, but Rising has done enough over the last two seasons to be taken seriously as a prospect.

His 2.9 BTT to TWP ratio was second best in the country last season and that mark is considered elite. So far this season he’s 18th in AY/A, 19th in passer rating, 21st in TD pergame, 25th in rushing yards per game, and is the only QB to take down Williams and USC so far this season.

He is not elite at anything, but is above average everywhere and refuses to make mistakes. Also, Utah doesn’t deploy the most wide open scheme on earth which leaves the door open for him to seek a transfer into a program that does.

Nevertheless, his stock has risen 8% this season as Rising is now the 9th highest priced QB who is eligible for the 2023 draft still behind KJ Jefferson and DJ Uiagalelei.

Bo Nix, Oregon: $3.91

Nix’s ducks were handed their first loss last week in a CRAZY game against Michael Penix Jr. and the Washington Huskies, but it wasn’t due to his own lack of effort or production.

He still managed 280 passing yards, two TDs, and a 67% completion percentage despite an ankle injury that looked incredibly malicious.

Regardless, Nix’s magical season will wage on. He leads the nation in completion percentage and adjusted completion while showing off his monster arm. He’s 6th in AY/A, 4th in CFB passer rating, 2nd in TDs per game, and 10th in total yards per game. This has been a truly magical season from a guy who was ostracized from his beloved Auburn Tigers.

Most impressively, there’s genuine buzz growing that Nix can sneak into Day 2 of the draft or even the back end of Round 1. He’s still a former five-star recruit with incredible traits and a year’s worth of eye-popping production. Stranger things have happened.

Yet, he’s STILL priced like a Day 3 pick and just the 19th most expensive QB that’s currently draft eligible. If nothing else Nix is worth a speculative look in case the helium persists.

Prices are current as of 11/18/22 at 4:00 PM
James Schiano is a full time employee of Mojo. All trades you make are with Mojo, which sets the lines as the “house”. Recommendations are for entertainment purposes only. Please use your own judgment and data to make trades. 21+. Must be in NJ to trade. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER
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