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Anticipating Stocks of Transfer Portal QBs
Anticipating Stocks of Transfer Portal QBs

Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press

December 5, 2022

The 2022 college football regular season has come to a close. There are really only three games left that players likely feel are mandatory - the playoff semifinals and final. 

For many, December will be a time to reflect and decide if a change is needed. In the transfer portal era, all players have one free transfer with no questions asked and no penalties. Stock will undoubtedly go up or down for players depending on what situation they find themselves in a week from now. 

Remember, a player’s share price reflects statistical expectations in their NFL career. For NCAA prospects, college stats only matter if they affect how the market views their NFL potential. That all starts with their expected draft position. 

Let’s take a look at a few QB prospects whose stocks will likely increase over the next few weeks as they find themselves in a new program.

Make sure you tack on their 3x Multiplier if you want a chance for higher returns!

Nick Evers ($2.14), Oklahoma 

A top 10 QB in the 2022 freshman class grading out as average to good in most categories but without a standout attribute. He did not see the field much in his first year despite an injury to starter Dillon Gabriel. Rather, the Sooners went with the clearly overmatched Davis Beville until Gabriel was healthy. 

Last week, Evers announced that he would be entering the transfer portal when it opens on December 5th. The timing of this transfer indicates he did not want to wait for Dillon Gabriel to declare for the NFL and wants to play right away.

I assume he will find himself at the top of a Power 5 depth chart by 2023. Right now, Evers is priced as a future undrafted free agent at the NFL level. His share price is less than Arizona’s starter Jayden De Laura ($2.36), former Pittsburgh Panther Kedon Slovis ($2.45), and Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa ($3.75). 

The three QBs mentioned are at programs comparable to where I would expect Evers to sign with and I expect his stock to see a bump when his destination is eventually announced whether or not he’s immediately presumed the starter.

However, I think his prospect profile is good enough to expect he will enter camp as a starter and start producing immediately next season. A rise into Tagovailoa’s $3.50-4.00 range over the next year is not impossible given Evers’ pedigree and likely opportunity. That kind of rise would turn a $1k bet today into roughly $10k next year with his multiplier. 

Shedeur Sanders ($1.82), Jackson State

This situation is a little unconventional. But when you are dealing with the Prime Family, you have to expect the unexpected. Shedeur’s father, Deion Sanders, announced that he is leaving Jackson State and accepting the head coach job at the University of Colorado. The college football world is fascinated by this move and it will be one of the most discussed hires of the off season. 

Sanders has not announced anything yet, but will almost surely follow his dad to Boulder. By the time this piece is published, the SWAC offensive player of the year could already be packing his bags. 

This bet is one that is anticipating a hype-based rise for Sanders’ stock. His numbers are good, but the jump in competition from FCS Jackson State to the Pac 12 is quite a leap. That makes it difficult to gauge his talent level, but simply being the starting quarterback for a Power Five university will create a value bump. 

Players in major conferences that possess average talent as well as questionable NFL prospects often sit in the $3-5 range. That list includes Malik Cunningham ($3.88), Jayden Daniels ($4.65), and Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($5.19). Simply being a starter in a major conference should add value. If he performs even close to how he has at Jackson State, a 5x return is possible over the next few seasons. 

Michael Pratt ($0.98), Tulane

The Tulane Green Wave just won their conference for the first time in 24 years and quarterback Michael Pratt is a huge reason why. He threw for 400 yards with five total touchdowns in the American Athletic Conference championship truly saving his best for last.

2022 was a superb year for Pratt. He enjoyed a career-best completion percentage (64%), as well as highwater marks in touchdowns and yards per attempt. He’s also a good runner, adding 395 yards and 10 scores on the ground. Pratt is an exciting talent that has gone largely unnoticed playing for Tulane.

Or, perhaps he will parlay this success into a starting position at a more prestigious university. There are rumors that he will look to level up after this season to show off his skills and earn the respect of NFL evaluators as he looks to get drafted in the 2024. 

We over at think Pratt flashes quality tools and is an above average athlete. Betting on him now at less than $1 per share is a very low-risk play, but Pratt shares could end up being the highest priced player on this list by next offseason if he transfers out of Tulane and performs at a major program. 

What if he winds up a 3rd round NFL draft pick? That could be in play given his production and size (6’2”, 220 LBS). That would make him the peer of players like Anthony Richardson and JJ McCarthy who are currently priced as 3rd round picks and just a hair below $10. 

A $1k bet on Pratt now could turn into nearly $30k with his Multiplier by the time the 2024 NFL draft rolls around. Even if he ends up going on Day 3, a $1k bet could easily be worth more than $5k with his Multiplier. There is plenty of ceiling left for Pratt.

Prices are current as of 12/5/22 at 4:00 PM
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